00:00 Hello and welcome. This is BQ Prime. I am Agam Vakil. We're taking stock of the markets
00:05 at the moment and what the technicals and the futures and options are indicating as
00:09 far as markets go. Key Medchock indices certainly have taken a step back from life highs they
00:15 made a few days ago. And at the moment, the question really is, are we looking at consolidation
00:20 or are we actually looking at a downward trend, at least in momentary terms? But let's get
00:28 in an expert to take a look at the markets and find out as to what their views are. We
00:33 have Kush Pohra, who is the founder of kushpohra.com. And Kush, good morning. Thank you so much
00:39 for joining in. Let's start with your view on the markets in general. And perhaps if
00:44 you could also give us your call on the Nifty. Hi Agam, first up, thank you for having me
00:51 on the show. It's lovely to be here. Well, the overall view is that, you know, this correction
00:56 is a little healthy. In fact, this is one of those corrections where the market participants
00:59 were really asking for one and in the markets have obliged. So I don't think anyone's gone
01:04 into the panic mode just yet. And if I see the mid caps and the small caps, which had
01:09 probably cracked a little before, you know, the large caps did, those stocks also have
01:14 started to recover. So you'll see a lot of stock specific action, a lot of stocks rebounding
01:18 from the recent rubbing that they had seen about a week or two ago. So I think it's still
01:22 in a very healthy zone. I don't think anyone's pressed the panic button just yet. Of course,
01:27 you know, so much red on the screen is not really something that you want to see, you
01:30 know, day after day. And perhaps this is, I think, the sixth or the seventh day that,
01:33 you know, we are seeing the downward move. So overall, I don't think we are in a lot
01:38 of trouble yet, especially given the fact that, you know, we're correcting from the
01:43 highs and, you know, it's although a little protruded right now, but not too deep. But
01:48 I would suggest that, you know, be a little watchful. Shorting opportunities from here
01:52 probably could be a little late, at least on the indices. So we'll look for buying opportunities,
01:57 but we let the falling knife, you know, arrest its fall, we let the dust settle, and then
02:01 perhaps sort of closing to the closer to the support zones and the resistance zones. So
02:05 I will look for buying opportunities, but once the market and the indices settle down.
02:09 All right, fair enough. Well, let's also take stock of what's happening with the Bank Nifty.
02:15 And you know, what we're actually looking at is that Bank Nifty really didn't hit that
02:20 life high or maybe barely just touched and, you know, came off a few days ago. Currently,
02:26 it is below the 44500 mark. That's a level that has been on the radar for a lot of traders
02:34 for, in fact, if I'm not mistaken, since the month of May. And while we did see some significant
02:41 dashes moving above that mark, and the Bank Nifty touching nearly 46000 at one point in
02:47 time, but we've started to see that weakness seep back. So what's the way forward here,
02:53 Kush? I think the rebound on the Bank Nifty will probably be a little faster. And I'll
02:59 give you a reason for that. If you look at the hourly charts, the short term charts,
03:04 the Bank Nifty has actually gone into a slightly oversold category, you know, the territory
03:09 rather, which is slightly deeper than the Nifty itself. And that is where also, you
03:13 know, my confidence is coming that, you know, perhaps a near term bottom is around the corner.
03:17 Now, you're absolutely right. 44500 was a very crucial mark. In fact, you know, the
03:21 Bank Nifty spent about good four days trying to defend it before eventually breaking it
03:26 today. So I think this is going to be a key resistance level on the way up, not surprising
03:31 45000, which is a psychologically important mark, but also now has the convergence of
03:37 its 20 day and its 50 day moving averages on the upside will also act as a near term
03:41 resistance zone. So I think 44500 to 45000, this is a bang, and which you know, Bank Nifty
03:47 will perhaps have to test and clear before it sort of makes a move towards the 46000
03:51 plus kind of levels. So in the near term, I am looking at 43900 kind of, you know, a
03:56 level, which should act as a near term support. Because if I dial the clock back a little,
04:01 if I go back somewhere close to, you know, end of May, beginning of June, the Bank Nifty
04:05 spent a considerable amount of time within this, you know, 43500, 44000 zone, before
04:10 it started to move up and made that, you know, all time high close to 46000. So I think here,
04:15 we could expect a rebound close to support zone of 43900. As I said, you know, I am looking
04:21 for buying opportunities, but I won't be the first one or I wouldn't jump the gun, I would
04:25 let you know, the first bounce come in. And that's when I will look at, you know, entering
04:29 from here. As I said, you know, the shorting opportunities are perhaps a miss, you know,
04:32 at these levels. Right. Fair enough, Kush. Let's also take a look at what's really happening
04:38 and what's really buzzing as far as the stock futures go. And, you know, while overall,
04:43 we've actually continue to see a lot of traction of late in some of your large cap names, including
04:50 those in the Nifty, you know, every now and then we also see some very large moves as
04:55 far as your mid cap buzzers go. But for now, we are looking at significant weakness in
05:01 Vedanta today. ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank also dragging the bank Nifty down in today's share
05:07 trade. And NTPC is also showing a little bit of weakness. That's as far as some of those,
05:12 you know, active stock futures go from here. But Kush, are you seeing any stocks which
05:20 are coming into your radar in terms of potential trades and how would you play them?
05:25 Sure, a couple of them. And before we move to that, a quick word on what you just mentioned,
05:30 some of the stocks in the banking space haven't been doing well. You know, I think HDFC Bank
05:35 for now, it seems like a done and dusted story. I don't think there is any fresh trigger in
05:39 that. So I think, you know, not much is expected out of that. But you know, what you rightly
05:43 mentioned the likes of ICICI Bank, and I would like to also add, you know, the fact that
05:47 even SBI, the PSU, you know, big gun that was actually doing very well, the entire space
05:51 was doing very well, has now sort of gone into a bit of a, you know, consolidation
05:55 mode. This is the bigger worry. And hence, you're seeing the rub off, you know, on the
05:59 banking index, the Bank Nifty as well, where ICICI and SBI are not participating. And as
06:03 I said, HDFC, not too many hopes on that, you know, at least in the near term, that
06:08 could perhaps, you know, keep the Bank Nifty under check. So that is something that I will
06:13 watch for. Incidentally, both of these stocks are closer to their support zones. So just
06:17 confirming the theory that, you know, a near term bottom may around, you know, be around
06:20 the corner. As far as stock specific action go, we've seen a couple of stocks actually
06:25 do very well, even in this kind of a downturn. One of the stocks that's on my radar, you
06:30 know, for a while now, is actually UPL. Now, I know the stock has actually underperformed
06:34 for a very long time. But this is perhaps why, you know, it's on my radar, this is a
06:39 trigger. This stock made its bottom way before the market started declining. So 580-590 kind
06:44 of zones where the stock had a strong support, and it's rebounded from there. Although it's
06:49 in a bit of a pressure, but that's more in line with the markets and it's respecting
06:52 its near term averages, the 20 day moving average, the 50 day moving average. So I think
06:56 once the market settle, this stock has a lot of catching up to do with its peers, you know,
07:02 in this space, which have already run up quite sharply about anywhere from 10 to 20%. So
07:07 I think for the next series, for the October series, UPL is one stock that you know, I
07:12 have on my radar. For a near term pick, I would have 635-660 kind of levels as my target.
07:18 And on the downside 580, you know, where the stock actually rebounded from is where I would
07:22 place my stop loss. So this is, you know, one pick that I have on the long side.
07:26 All right, Kush. Well, that's your view on the markets and we'll leave it at that. Thank
07:31 you so much for joining in and taking us through your views. But for now, of course, subdued
07:38 trade as far as the benchmarks are concerned. And we're going to have to continue to see
07:42 whether or not we see more weakness or a little more consolidation coming through.
07:45 But for now, we're signing out, but there's lots more lined up. Stay tuned to Bloomberg.
07:51 Pardon me, BQ Pride.
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