If wartime grain deal is not renewed, 'it will be painful for a lot of people' across the world
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00:00 Emmanuel Chas reporting there from Kyiv. Thank you. And joining me now from London is Maurizio
00:05 Zanardi, an economics professor at the University of Surrey. Professor Zanardi, thank you so much
00:10 for your time. Russia says it's pulling out of this grain deal, but how much are they using it
00:15 as a bargaining chip? Well, I think it is exactly a bargaining chip and the news you just reported
00:22 that they're pulling out from the deal and the attack on the bridge must be seen as part of the
00:28 same economic story in a way. Russia would like something from Western countries in order to renew
00:37 the deal and the attack happens today. Now, whatever are the origins of the attack, it seems
00:42 too strange to believe that is merely a coincidence, but then it depends how this
00:47 will influence the negotiations. There is an economic battle as well as a conflict on the
00:52 ground and these are the signs of these economic battles that are going to be costly for Ukrainian
00:58 farmers, for the Ukrainian economy, as well as for countries around the world, not only developing
01:03 countries because of the uncertainty of the price of grains in the world markets. So, what exactly
01:09 is Moscow wanting? So, listening to their statement, what they would want is that one bank or
01:16 a subsidiary of a bank be allowed to join the SWIFT system of international payments in order to
01:23 carry out the payments related to exports of agricultural products. Putin has also been
01:29 complaining that too little of the grains exported from Ukraine have reached directly developing
01:35 countries. Although the UN also says that a lot of the grains that they buy, they come from Ukraine
01:41 and they are then sent to developing countries. So, there is a destination issue as well as
01:47 allowing one of the banks of Russia to be reinstated within the SWIFT system. This latter
01:55 condition is possibly a little more problematic, but my concern is that the economic outlook,
02:00 if the deal is not renewed, will be even more painful for a lot of people. So, as a result,
02:06 how much are the Western allies willing to give Moscow on this issue? Well, I don't have a crystal
02:14 ball in front of me, but I think that the Western allies will try to do something and they are
02:19 exploring, that's my understanding, the feasibility of reintegrating one bank into the SWIFT system,
02:25 promising, committing that more of the grains reach African countries or other developing
02:31 countries. It's something that would be more manageable to achieve. Now, the question is,
02:36 how long is the suspension going to take place? Because every day there will be many ships
02:41 carrying these products. So, every day counts. Is Turkey once again going to become a key broker
02:50 in these rounds of negotiations? I would expect so, and in a way that
02:57 will also portray the role that Turkey has played so far. Let's not forget that there have already
03:02 been two extensions of this deal, which they don't usually reach mainstream news headlines,
03:07 but Turkey has been pivotal in these situations. And that's something that for sure the President
03:14 of Turkey will consider importantly for the objective of the deal itself, but also to
03:19 recognise the status of Turkey on the international stage. We're going to have to leave it there.
03:25 Professor Zanardi from University of Surrey in the UK, thank you.