Sudan fighting: Is there any hope for a ceasefire or negotiations?

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00:00 Joining me here in the studio is our international affairs commentator Douglas Herbert.

00:04 Doug, is there any hope for a ceasefire or at least some form of negotiations?

00:09 In a nutshell, in the short term, no.

00:11 It doesn't look like it.

00:12 We just heard at the very end of that report that the two generals, the rival fiercely

00:16 of vying generals, are in no mood for talks.

00:20 That's putting it mildly, Annette.

00:22 Basically the entire world community, the region, has been calling on from Russia, China,

00:28 U.S., Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Nations Security Council, the European Union and the African

00:33 Union.

00:34 I know that's a long list.

00:35 I'll take a breath.

00:36 Have basically been calling for an immediate end to hostilities.

00:39 They're not getting it.

00:40 To the contrary, what we have is just more and more reports of fighting.

00:44 The Rapid Support Forces, which is the name given to this paramilitary grouping, which

00:50 has become enormously powerful under its putative chief known as Hemeti, it tweeted about a

00:58 couple of hours ago that it had shot down a jet fighter belonging to the Sudanese army.

01:03 Now obviously this is to be taken with a grain of salt.

01:05 It's part of the wartime propaganda.

01:08 We have no way of immediately verifying that.

01:10 But it does indicate the very fact they would tweet about that is they are going after the

01:14 targets they consider their priorities.

01:16 The Rapid Support Forces do not have an air force.

01:19 The Sudanese regular army do.

01:21 That's why this has been seen as sort of a lopsided battle so far.

01:24 We saw in that report just now a plane streaking over the sky over Khartoum, the capital.

01:30 And I would bet that that was probably, it almost had to be a military regular army warplane.

01:36 You have had some sort of overtures to diplomacy.

01:40 The Saudi foreign minister reportedly this morning calling both Burhan, who is the paramilitary

01:47 chief, sorry, who is the regular army chief, and Hemeti, who is the paramilitary militia

01:53 chief, calling them both, urging sort of a calming of hostilities.

01:57 But like I said, once again, there is neither the ambition, there is neither the motivation

02:01 right now, there is neither the determination.

02:03 On the contrary, you have heard these leaders finger pointing at each other, mutual recrimination.

02:09 And basically this is the clash of two extremely power hungry warlords, essentially, who are

02:16 taking their entire country and their civilian population hostage.

02:19 And I mean that literally because people are cowering in their homes.

02:22 The World Food Program has had to suspend its operations in the entire country after

02:26 some of its employees were killed there.

02:30 So people are in real danger of, because of these two men's egocentricity, not being able

02:35 to live their lives or get any food in the meantime.

02:38 No.

02:39 These men certainly have support.

02:41 Tell us about the foreign actors behind these two individuals.

02:45 Yeah, they're certainly not operating in a vacuum, Annette.

02:48 And what I mean by that is Sudan is, you know, I know it sounds a little cliched to say,

02:53 but yes, it is strategically, geopolitically, strategically located.

02:56 It is south of Egypt, yet above the Sahara, has a Red Sea port with Russia, Russia covets.

03:01 And this goes to the heart of a big rivalry, Russia and the West.

03:04 What I mean by the West, shorthand for the US and Europe, have been sort of in a tug

03:08 of war for influence in the region.

03:10 Sudan, yes, is resource rich.

03:13 And what do I mean by that?

03:15 Mostly gold, gold mining.

03:16 They want influence.

03:18 They want to have the upper hand.

03:19 The US wants to be able to, although you could see the last point I'll get to in a second,

03:23 wants to have some sort of influence on the transition there when and if it happens.

03:26 The junta's close ties with the Persian Gulf monarchies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab

03:31 Emirates, last seen leading a Saudi led coalition in the most horrific humanitarian war and

03:36 crisis in the world in Yemen.

03:38 So there you have it there.

03:40 The both sides of this military leadership, leadership cozying up to Saudi and UAE.

03:45 Sudanese troops.

03:46 Ah, surprise, surprise.

03:47 Sudanese troops, both the regular army and the paramilitary forces, basically joining

03:53 Saudi troops in that Saudi led coalition, not Saudi troops, but the Saudi led coalition

03:57 in Yemen.

03:58 Egyptian war drills with Sudanese military.

04:01 The Egypt has favored the official regular army.

04:04 And it's no surprise that Egyptian soldiers who are doing military drills over the weekend

04:09 with Sudanese army were captured by the paramilitary force.

04:12 They're going to reportedly be sent back to Egypt.

04:15 And finally, you had the U.S. sort of sitting on the fence there, rhetorically supporting

04:19 the democratic transition, but at the same time, wait and see attitude up until now,

04:23 sort of supporting these two horrible, odious, let's say it the way it is, odious, dictatorial

04:28 junta leaders at the head of this regime, supporting them.

04:33 Douglas Herbert, thank you for that.

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