Saxo Bank, the online trading and investment specialist, believes a reasonably positive economic momentum barring a geopolitical crisis is likely during Q2 2012. The eventual return of QE seems inevitable as central banks try to keep the crisis at bay and the compounding of policy errors failing to address the solvency problem and growing social and geo-political friction will potentially lead to an explosive outcome.
According to the Bank’s analysts, Europe will continue on the path of flat growth despite the Eurozone having entered recession at the tail-end of last year. However the rebound in economic growth in the US will eventually spill over into Europe, and Asia will continue to aid its growth through imports. If the recovery in the US fails to provide enough jobs momentum a return of QE some time in Q3 may be a possibility. In Asia, the critical question is China, as losses on investments continue to accumulate and eventually need to be realised.
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