China's Export Sector Faces Headwinds in the New Year

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China's export sector growth has slumped to its lowest level since the end of 2009. Demand has weakened due to Europe's debt crisis. And expectations of a steady export growth remain low.

China's export sector growth has slowed down since December last year. It's partly due to sluggish demand from the United States and Europe that is triggered by the European sovereign debt crisis.

The annual growth rate for last December is 13.4%, down from 13.8% in November.

The chief investment strategist of UBS Wealth Management, Pu Yonghao, said export sector growth would remain slow while inflation may start to ease.

[Pu Yonghao, Chief Investment Strategist, UBS Wealth Management]:
"So in the coming data released, like export data, export of course depends on the external environment. I would expect it to remain sort of weak and to slow down. But in terms of the domestic consumption or production numbers or inflation numbers, those should move towards a more positive side."

Facing international criticism of the Chinese regime's exchange rate policy, the decreasing trade surplus of last year may help the regime defend itself that it is reforming its exchange rate policy. But Pu said he wouldn't expect any move in the near future.

[Pu Yonghao, Chief Investment Strategist, UBS Wealth Management]:
"I think in terms of nominal rate, I wouldn't expect an aggressive appreciation because this year's export number is going to be very challenging, I mean particularly for Europe. That's why I think Asian countries are probably not going to be very keen to allow the currency appreciation. On top of that, because inflation is also coming down, they don't have such an urgent need to appreciate their own currencies."

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