Budget airlines will survive – but expect consolidation. Future of Easyjet and Ryanair – competition from smaller carriers. Expect convergence between traditional airlines (cutting cost) and budget airlines (slightly more comfortable, and higher seat prices). But the two kinds of airlines will remain different. Future of airlines and aviation industry. Fall in average price paid per seat over last 15 years despite oil price rises. Average load factors, price per seat, revenues from air freight, additional hold baggage, in-flight meals, in-flight entertainment, priority boarding, wheelchair assistance and other extras. Fuel surcharges apply to most airlines but some budget airlines use newer aircraft to increase fuel efficiency and fewer empty seats means more passenger miles per ton of carbon dioxide emissions. Expect average cost per seat paid by average air traveller to continue to fall as traditional airlines become much more efficient. Comment by Futurist keynote conference speaker Patrick Dixon.