Why South Carolina Loss Should Concern Clinton Campaign

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more at http://www.theuptake.org University of Minnesota Professor John Logie digs into the South Carolina numbers and finds hope for John Edwards and reasons why the Hillary Clinton campaign really should be concerned about the loss to Barack Obama. This is the first of two parts of John's analysis. Transcription: The first striking statistic in the exit polls that CNN generated after the South Carolina primary was the overwhelming bias towards female voters in South Carolina. Those numbers shook out at 61 percent female to 39 percent male. In the main stream media it’s often presumed that Hillary Clinton will carry female votes, but it didn’t play out that way in South Carolina, where Barack Obama took 54 percent of the female voters to Hillary Clinton’s 30 percent and John Edward’s 16 percent. While it might be interesting to try and break that statistic down further, so we could sort out whether black female voters or white female voters were responsible for that result, we might also do well to take a page from the message delivered in Obama’s speech where he suggested that this election is about, among other things, people not necessarily voting lockstep identity politics – not necessarily voting for the candidate who most superficially resembles them in terms of their own race or gender. There is one demographic group that voted strongly for Hillary Clinton. One and one only as it turns out. And that is voters 65 or older. They voted 40 percent for Clinton, 32 percent for Obama and 27 percent for Edwards. That is the only group that Obama didn’t win. It suggests that older voters are going to be a source of strength for Hillary Clinton as the campaign goes on. But Obama’s strong performance across literally every other demographic – and if you drop that number from 65 and older just 60 and older he actually wins that demographic 38 to 35. It suggests there’s a very strong correlation between the age of the voter and their willingness to vote for Obama, with older voters siding ...

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