Duke is the only school in the history of the NCAA tournament to get a number three seed after 5 losses against schools that were double digit seeds. But that statistic was not emphasized by the sports experts we rely upon to complete our brackets. So it is no surprise that 97% of us had Duke beating Mercer. Sports media now say Duke was overrated after the loss to Mercer 78-71 in this NCAA Tournament. The question they don’t ask is “Why did they overrate them?” Part of the answer starts with the fact that people allow emotion to avoid a purely objective analysis and they discount the predictive analytics that minimize their risk.