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How Weather Patterns Can Predict Heat Waves

5 years ago24 views

GeoBeats

Geo Beats

According to a recent study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, or NCAR in Boulder, Colorado there are certain patterns of weather that happen before a heat wave in the United States.



According to a recent study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, or NCAR in Boulder, Colorado there are certain patterns of weather that happen before a heat wave in the United States.

By studying a weather simulation that spanned 12 thousand years, researchers from NCAR noticed the correlation between a certain atmospheric circulation pattern and the occurrence of heat waves in the US.

To confirm the data, they analyzed 6 thousand heat waves using a computer model that determined warmer weather was 2 to 4 times more likely to happen 15 to 20 days after the atmospheric pattern known as wavenumber 5.

Climate scientist from NCAR Haiyen Teng said: “This pattern has been documented in a number of studies by other people. Our contribution is to link it to probability of heat waves with the help of a climate model.”

They compared the data from the model with US weather records of heat waves dating back to 1948 and found that the correlation also existed there.

This new information might be used to make more accurate long term weather forecast predictions.

What do you think about weather patterns being used to forecast further into the future?

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