Skyywatcher88

WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. During the flare, New Mexico amateur astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded a series of radio bursts at 21 and 28 MHz:

WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory.

ANOTHER CME TARGETS EARTH: Sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another strong flare, an M6-class eruption on March 9th at 0358 UT. The blast hurled a coronal mass ejection almost directly toward Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%.

ANOTHER CME IS HEADING FOR EARTH: Sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another strong solar flare, an M6-class eruption on March 9th at 0358 UT. The blast hurled a coronal mass ejection directly toward Earth (movie). According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr) adding to the geomagnetic unrest already underway.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE: A CME propelled toward Earth by this morning's X5-class solar flare is expected to reach our planet on March 8th at 0625 UT (+/- 7 hr). Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, say the impact could spark a strong-to-severe geomagnetic storm. Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras.

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity reached moderate levels today. An M3/Sf flare was observed off the NE limb at 02/1746Z near N16. As the region rotates on the visible disk, a more detailed analysis of its complexity can be determined. STEREO B EUVI 195 imagery indicated a possible CME associated with the event beginning at 02/1746Z, however, further imagery from SOHO/LASCO will be needed to confirm.

CME is heading for Earth, and they say strong geomagnetic storms are possible (although not guaranteed) when the cloud arrives this weekend. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1402 (N29E15) produced an M3/2n flare at 19/1605Z associated with a Type IV radio sweep and a full-halo CME (estimated plane-of-sky speed 1100 km/s). Region 1402 showed minor spot growth in its trailer portion and was classified as an Dko-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region 1401 (N18E13) showed some spot and penumbral development in its intermediate portion and was classified as an Eko-type with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Weak Type II radio sweeps were observed at 19/1252Z (estimated speed 933 km/s) and 19/1933Z (estimated speed 694 km/s). No new regions were numbered. http://spaceweather.com

Small cool comet made of dust and ice named "Lovejoy" sundiving toward a Giant hot unforegiving sun, almost no chance of the comet surviving the encounter, but yet love and joy prevailed amazingly in the right proportions...An understanding one may need as the world plunges into 2012...What a wonderful sign to end the year...Merry Christmas...Peace!

A local merchant trying to fix a broken lighter, when suddenly it explodes in to flames, sending the merchant running for safety. The merchant suffered only light burns to the face. Seeing how this was a day before Thanksgiving, the merchant has something to be thankful for!

The timing of the CME so soon after the comet dove into the sun suggests a link. But what? There is no known mechanism for comets to trigger solar explosions. Before 2011 most solar physicists would have discounted the events of Oct. 1st as pure coincidence--and pure coincidence is still the most likely explanation. Earlier this year, however, the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) watched another sungrazer disintegrate in the sun's atmosphere. On July 5, 2011, the unnamed comet appeared to interact with plasma and magnetic fields in its surroundings as it fell apart. Could a puny comet cause a magnetic instability that might propagate and blossom into a impressive CME? The question is not so crazy as it once seemed to be.

DOUBLE ERUPTION: On October 1st around 10:17 UT, widely-spaced sunspots 1302 and 1305 erupted in quick succession, revealing a long-distance entanglement which was not obvious before. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the double blast: Now a triple eruption (Oct 2nd, 2011).

Earth directed M1.2-class flare coupled with an Earth directed CME...Stay tuned for updates...

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: New sunspot 1302 has already produced two X-flares (X1.4 on Sept. 22nd and X1.9 on Sept. 24th), can another be far behind? NOAA forecasters put the 24-hour probability at 20%. The sheer size of the active region suggests the odds might be even higher than that:

UPDATE: Sunspot 1302 followed today's X1.9-flare with an M7.1-flare nearly as strong. So far none of the blasts has been Earth-directed, but this could change as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead. The sunspot is growing and shows no immediate signs of quieting down. Each of the dark cores is larger than Earth, and the entire active region stretches more than 100,000 km from end to end. The sunspot's magnetic field is crackling with sub-X-class flares that could grow into a larger eruption as the sunspot continues to turn toward Earth.

MAJOR X-FLARE + CME UPDATE: Earth-orbiting satellites have detected a long-duration X1.4-class solar flare coming from a new sunspot on the sun's eastern limb. The blast, which peaked at 1100 UT, produced a significant coronal mass ejection (CME). Using data from the SOHO-STEREO fleet of spacecraft, analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have modeled the trajectory of the CME and concluded that the body of the cloud will not hit Earth. A minor glancing encounter with the outskirts of the CME is, however, possible on Sept. 25th.